It was a warm and cloudy start to Wednesday where temperatures sat in the mid 40's early on. There may be a few small breaks in the cloud cover prior to the rain later in the morning.
It will definitely be a wet Wednesday, where moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible in the late afternoon and during the evening some of that rain will turn to snow.
Rain will start around lunch time with the heaviest rainfall moving in through the evening commute. Rainfall amounts will be from 0.25'' to 1'' through Thursday morning.
When will it turn to snow? Where will it turn to snow? A cold front will slowly sag south during the evening commute and into the night. This will cause a thin band of rain to turn over to snow. The flakes will be large, heavy and wet. Snowfall rates will be heavy enough to accumulate, but temperatures at the surface will be above freezing so it will be melting immediately.
Snowfall forecasting is difficult in this system. The band of snow will be roughly a county or two wide, which means any shift could leave some areas with upwards of 4'' and others with nothing. In order to capture the band of snow, we want a one county width of pad in case the cold air shifts one way or another.
Along and north of I-94/WI-29 has the best chances for accumulating snow with the upper limit of potential snow chances along highway 8. A thin band may drop 1 to 4 inches and just a few counties south may only see rain. It's a tough forecast to pinpoint indeed.
Everyday over the next week has a chance to see some light rain or scattered showers, minus next Monday. Saturday looks very similar to Wednesday's system and we could see a good amount of rain with some snow then, too.