A few different systems are playing against each other this morning as a large band of rain showers continues across much of the region. A stalled, split-centered low pressure system hangs across Iowa and Illinois that will eventually grab hold of the upper level wind pattern and move to the northeast through the morning hours.
There is a cold front across northern Minnesota that will slowly shift south throughout the day. It will cause three things to happen.
1. It will bring about another line of isolated showers through the early afternoon. These will not carry much moisture and will likely be short lived. There won’t be any thunder with these showers, and at best it will simply re-wet the pavement.
2. Cooler daytime temperatures will be in the mid 60’s. Due to the cloud cover through much of the day, daytime heating will have a tough time getting temperatures above 60. Until the cold front moves through and gradually clears cloud cover through the late afternoon that may lead to a few minutes of sunshine and some last minute heating
3. A slight breeze will develop out of the north/northwest. As the front passes, winds will become stronger at 10 to 20 mph with a few gusts above that threshold. This will make it feel slightly cooler, and more like late April than mid June.
Those cooler temperatures and clearing skies overnight may lead to a few notorious areas seeing frost by Thursday morning. But that’s only if the winds settle enough and we get completely clear skies. It seems more likely in northeast/central Wisconsin and the U.P. Michigan.
As we look ahead to Father’s Day weekend, we see a break from the action Thursday with sunshine returning and temperatures closer to 70. Meanwhile, the weekend looks a bit wet. Models are still all over the board for timing on rain showers and a possible thunderstorm or two Friday through Sunday. While they all agree there are rain chances each day, at least Father’s Day itself looks to be the driest.